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Potential Diesel Demand Spike in 2019

red

stubborn Texan displaced to Utah
Messages
1,642
Likes
531
Location
Eagle Mountain, Utah
#22
Testing in the US has had no focus on waste water until 2016, it's been focused on clean water. Scientists in Brazil started researching using waste water a few years ago. The growth rate of algae is absurdly fast compared to any other plant, with a yield of well over 10 times what corn makes per harvest, with a harvest every few weeks. Corn is considered marginally profitable. With bugs in the processed fuel yea that's a concern, not difficult to prevent that though with the right chemicals (same with any other biodiesel sources) and rotating through the supply quickly.

Articles I've read on it, Brazil became interested in the waste water option because most of theirs isn't treated and were looking for a cheaper way to make the fuel. The algae does grow slower in waste water than in clean, processed water with fertilizer added (what US scientists have been focused on since the 70's).
 

BIGR

Lucky To Be Here
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5,715
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3,654
Location
Appalachian Mountains
#24
I suspect we will see an overall drop in operating speeds to conserve diesel fuels having the operator driving at peak torque of any given diesel engine.

With my current 4.10 gearing on my Cummins Burb I'd be around 55 MPH max for best results since wind drag generally starts at 45MPH.
If I were you I would install a 3:08 gear in it for maximum fuel mileage......…...:smuggrin::)
 

schiker

Well-Known Member
Messages
2,435
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557
Location
Pendleton, SC
#27
Like I mentioned earlier enforcement may be an issue.

The article mentions insurance companies are going to be used to help enforce the law by not covering noncompliant ships. But again this probably is more Western-oriented vessels.

It does seem kind of penny wise and pound foolish to restrict individual vehicles emissions so tightly when large-scale ships can do so much more polluting. I assume this lopsidedness is due partially to the fact that over open ocean pollution can dissipate with less impact on human populations.

Will it lead to more foreign registry of ships and loophole chasing ???

From Wikipedia

Each merchant ship is required by international law to be registered in a registry created by a country,[3] and a ship is subject to the laws of that country, which are used also if the ship is involved in a case under admiralty law. A ship's owners may elect to register a ship in a foreign country which enables it to avoid the regulations of the owners’ country which may, for example, have stricter safety standards. They may also select a jurisdiction to reduce operating costs, bypassing laws that protect the wages and working conditions of mariners.[4] The term "flag of convenience" has been used since the 1950s. A registry which does not have a nationality or residency requirement for ship registration is often described as an open registry. Panama, for example, offers the advantages of easier registration (often online) and the ability to employ cheaper foreign labour. Furthermore the foreign owners pay no income taxes.
 

schiker

Well-Known Member
Messages
2,435
Likes
557
Location
Pendleton, SC
#28
I emailed my father in law who makes flue gas scrubbers and he said they have already installed scrubbers on modern pleasure cruise ships. He indicated the big boy ships have started reacting with better emissions.

He did not think it would be as catastrophic overnight demand as the article claims.

He said he saw some stuff back in 1975 for SO2 scrubbers for ships.

He seemed to indicate the rule is for the larger ships and there are 10x as many smaller ships that will still pollute under the size requirements of the law that could still burn No.6 fuel and or higher sulfur diesel????

I don't think stock piling stored diesel is a good solution because your stock pile will run out and unless you have a free bulk container its just going to be another expense to store it.

As for my personal outlook it does encourage me waiting to buy my next diesel truck and see if prices come down.

Thought about maybe looking into a waste grease oil systems. Seems if the pump prices jump then the demand for those will rise and so will the cost.

What might happen is Europe is going to be hurting more than the US and refineries here might increase sales to Europe because according to my FIL some of our Gulf Coast refineries can process the "sour" crude and make clean diesel fuel. Don't they now sale refined diesel fuel to Europe because of the scale of our refineries we can use the cheaper sour crude from parts of Canada and produce the clean high cetane diesel at a good profit margin selling it to Europe in comparison to European refineries?

So at the pump price is likely to rise but not as dramatic as the first part of article illuminates and probably will be partly on schedule for economy cycle.

Construction is going really strong here and that typically is cyclic. What crashes the economy is when the banks start to hurt for loan payback.

......

Here is a clip from a paper circa 2012 that was the first of the restricted zones for air pollution. 2019-2020 is schedule expansion of the zones.


ECA-ships.PNG
 
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