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Potential Diesel Demand Spike in 2019

JayTheCPA

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FRANKENBURBAN
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Diesel can last years in storage if it's kept dry, and stored with a biocide in it. Moisture and bugs is what causes diesel fuel to go bad. It's not like gas where it goes rancid after a few months. It's not uncommon on farms to use diesel thats 2-3 years old after treating it with a biocide and filteri,g the bugs and growth out of it.
 

Will L.

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DB2 anyone? run 10% gasoline with your 90% used motor oil/ trans fluid,etc. which first gets run through the 120v motor driven oil pump feeding 90 psi to the centrifuge like Leroy sells. What? sounds like Will has been planning this a while. I did it once before but did some experimentation, wrecked my cf, and STUPIDLY gave away my motor/pump combo. SMH.

My thought is.. Pay attention to what is said by 2 sources on this one.
1. the shipping folks who are the ones saying how much fuel they will need.
2. Saudi- the last 5 big run up on prices , and the last 5 drop in prices was all told AHEAD of time in direct argument from the US experts and against the rest of opec. Saudi runs this market, make no mistake about it.

Store up before the price spike is ok but doesn't fix the issue, but if your gonna:
Simple part of the funnel that separates the water that was brought up here a while back before you store it to remove water in it, add the biocide, and fill the tank to maximum but allow for expansion.

Storing under a vacuum is ok in theory, but you have to be at least 20" vacuum to do any good, and a tank big enough to hold 50ish gallons and STRONG enough to not collapse... a lot of $. when instantly loosing a vacuum of a container storing flammable liquid gives the same result as one under pressure. I'd rather not be present.
 

FellowTraveler

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DB2 anyone? run 10% gasoline with your 90% used motor oil/ trans fluid,etc. which first gets run through the 120v motor driven oil pump feeding 90 psi to the centrifuge like Leroy sells. What? sounds like Will has been planning this a while. I did it once before but did some experimentation, wrecked my cf, and STUPIDLY gave away my motor/pump combo. SMH.

My thought is.. Pay attention to what is said by 2 sources on this one.
1. the shipping folks who are the ones saying how much fuel they will need.
2. Saudi- the last 5 big run up on prices , and the last 5 drop in prices was all told AHEAD of time in direct argument from the US experts and against the rest of opec. Saudi runs this market, make no mistake about it.

Store up before the price spike is ok but doesn't fix the issue, but if your gonna:
Simple part of the funnel that separates the water that was brought up here a while back before you store it to remove water in it, add the biocide, and fill the tank to maximum but allow for expansion.

Storing under a vacuum is ok in theory, but you have to be at least 20" vacuum to do any good, and a tank big enough to hold 50ish gallons and STRONG enough to not collapse... a lot of $. when instantly loosing a vacuum of a container storing flammable liquid gives the same result as one under pressure. I'd rather not be present.
Excellent thoughts, having a field expedient centrifuge & something to power it will prove to be priceless in SHTF situations.
 

JayTheCPA

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I figured that the supply side would probably take action. They will keep this game going until their pumps run dry and only the 'competition' is left. I would probably do the same thing as even once the wells go dry, the bank accounts and wealth will last for untold generations if managed properly . . .

Only real thing that caught my attention was commentary where the refineries were not on a path of readiness for the new fleet of consumers. Sure, in time they will get there, but it is not looking like it will happen in time for the switch-over. Naturally, I only know what I read and if the refineries are not up to speed for the demand, then it leaves the question of what happens when cargo ships start drinking the same #2. Am sure that the maritime industry is at a minimum watching this and probably taking an active role.

If the scenario does happen to any extent and diesel prices do spike for a significant length of time, it could also play into another nail in the diesel coffin. Then again, it might cause a temporary drop in automotive diesel demand for long enough for the manufacturers to get ahead of all the emissions controls that are choking the motor.

Toward the possible reality of the scenario, I just had a conversation with my local home heating company and they noticed the news last week. So, to me, that indicates this is definitely something brewing on the horizon . . .
 

FellowTraveler

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I suspect after what China has done by buying its oil elsewhere any invasion of Iran and/or Venezuela IMO has the potential too start a global conflict.

I was under the impression that the commercial marine industry uses red diesel which would mean major retrofitting/repowering to use the newer fuels.
 

JayTheCPA

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Last I looked into the maritime side, they used 'bunker' fuel which was thicker than #2. Had a friend that was known to get his hands on that stuff once in a while to blend it in to his pleasure boat. The presumption is that the new low sulfur fuel also comes from same refineries that produce #2.

According to the article, it looks like the maritime sector is making a global move to low sulfur. So looks like an industry self mandate and not a regulatory mandate.

At best, not much will come of this and things will work out. My read is that at a minimum it can turn into a 'hold-on-to-your-seat-belt' event for at least a short while.

Am personally not selling off the diesels based on this news. But if it does turn into a long term event, it will force a re-evaluation.
 

Will L.

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It isn’t just zombie day they are useful. When I set up one on a 120v motor, it can be hooked up to filter my in vehicle oil with a couple hoses and quick disconnects to use the same cf instead of under hood. At 55 gallons per hour, hooked up to the parked rig, how well cleaned is that oil staying? Same mod to the other cars and 1 cf assembly pays for itself quicker. Still would prefer on the truck operation to be able to loose the factory filter and replace with nascar style screen to double oil flow, but we’ll see.

Rember when diesel was always way cheaper than gas? Remove sulfur= more cost, period. Many of the US refinery locations shut down because it was so expensive to get to the ulsd levels, it simply was not worth it. I know most people think of huge mega million dollar operation where they make profits no matter what. Simply isn’t true.

I have pics on my other phone of a Nevada refinery that we went to scavenge parts of off like a truck at a junkyard for out plastics to fuel plant.

Many refineries world wide simply have to close the doors. It isn’t an oven that you just adjust the temperature and pressure and let it cook longer to get sulfur out.

New Diesel hot rod pickups being the coolest choice might go away. Price of fuel drops and new car/truck power wars kick in. Then something like this hits and it gets shelved. And this increased cost to the refineries doesn’t only raise diesel. Gasoline, home heating oil, etc is all gonna follow suit if costs go up.

On the home heating oil- I have no clue about expense - Las Vegas here and all... but if equal to or worse than power costs of a/c in summer here- there is no way I wouldn’t own a db2 truck/ older Mercedes car and home heating oil system and be processing my own fuel at home.
Even $5 a gallon fuel time, mechanic shops would give away used engine& trans fluid free. Currently $750ish invested makes the first 600 gallons of home made diesel (or home heating oil). This includes 55 gallons of gas @$3 per gallon. Not counting labor obviously. Now it is just the gasoline you buy to cut into the oil after cleaning.

As for thr other countries not under rules- not technically. But UN measures say most “agree” to it. And this falls under green, save the planet, low carbon mess of international chaos. So China for instance still allows 2 stroke mopeds and motorcycles everywhere on public streets, but is planning on doing this with shipping to keep customers in developed countries happy.

Think of fuel types as rungs on a ladder.
Rung 1 is crude. Rung 3 is asphalt oil. Rung 10 gear oil. Rung 15 engine oil. Rung 21 bunker fuel. Rung 22 diesel. Rung 30 kerosene. Rung 45 gasoline. Rung 100 propane. Rung 115 natural gas.

The viscosity of the product follows the carbon count- higher the ladder, thinner and less carbon.
Keep in mind the majority of sulfur naturally falls out around rung 40.

You refine (cook) the material longer and it breaks the molecular chain from turning one part asphalt into 2 half portion sizes of diesel. Keep cooking and you get less oils, more fuels. See the flame on top of refinery stacks? Propane, butane, and a few other simply not worth recovering that gets made as byproduct of making liquid fuels.
So any refinery making bunker (#4-8 diesel) aka jp4-8 if is gets scrubbed) Will have to slow their production, cook longer with more heat, create more waste product, just to make #2 instead. Then is still needs the sulfur out... the only reason they are doing boats instead of planes now is the public scare factor. Boat engine failure equals delayed shipment. Plane engine failure equals too early ground arrival time in wrong location- haha. Plane companies can scare the public into “double the ticket cost so you don’t die on your flight to Grandmas house”. So they aren’t following, yet.



The added cook time alone:
This will raise shipping costs and will raise prices at Walmart.

This will raise the price of all oil based produsts lighter than asphalt. Like anything plastic for instance even though it already has the sulfur removed in process. Arguments are that plastic oil production could increase if everyone has ability to remove sulfur. We’ll see.

Economic disaster... I don't see. I see it hurting a bit. But i saw AN economic hit coming back in 05-06, but was thinking a 100’ hill, not Mount Kilimanjaro that landed on my doorstep. I can say I wouldn’t to be in suv sales job in 2 years. Tesla or prius maybe haha.

The only reason I feel comfortable with my Hummer economically going into this is knowing it has a db2, not a ds4. If prices shoot up and suv’s flood the market, Fuel mileage is half other rigs, 1/3 of a prius. But at 1/4 the fuel cost for me...
 

red

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If fuel jumps up much higher then biodiesel production jumps up again to fill the gap. For some reason in the US the market hasn't accepted that there are ways to make biodiesel for around $1.50 a gallon (market price, not production cost) but even using category 1 materials with low yeilds (corn) it becomes an economical option at roughly $4.00 a gallon.
 

Will L.

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For the US market , yes that helps offset the price jump some. But in other countries it already proved to really hurt food prices. Farming here on giant tracts with modern equipment vs still using an animal dragging plow.

Friends of mine that visit African continent for religious stuff have showed me before and after farm pics. Not talking the places like open desert Africa like many imagjne btw. Kinda average rural environment.

The people in those areas can suffer bad. The food prices doubled when companies bought the family farms and stared doing corn for ethonal fuel to sell to companies in neighboring towns. The companies pay for the water allotments, and the farmers that remain struggle for the water they need to use all their land. And they corn they grow is something different than regular corn we eat. They said you can eat it and it stops hungry feeling, but your body wont process most of it and you end up most turning to yellowish poop with bits of brown in it- reverse of the poop with couple pieces of corn in it joked about here.

They explained the situation of working people class there and it reminds me of learning how people in th Appalachian mountains lived first half of 1900s. Neighboring area is developed to average levels, but folks in the hills struggling to get by. Results in some form of moderate criminal activity to advance the family because conventional work simply isnt there. When 80% of the town goes hungry 1 day per week, no way to make business or sell services because customers have nothing to trade.
 

Will L.

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The hardened parts now available for db2 vs old db2 is an easy yes. Having Chris coat a bunch of tiny pump parts is not a bad idea for any pump.

The only thing that coating is bad for is a friction surface like brake rotor face or flywheel face. But even on those parts, heat dispersant to the rest of the rotor and flywheel teeth getting the dry friction coating only helps and can not hurt. Maybe even thermal dispersant on the opposite side of flywheel?

Now if he has a btu increasing coating for the fuel...
 

schiker

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Had to read the whole article a couple times. Near the bottom they aren't quite as dramatic for the economy.

I think it will impact western shipping, fishing (seafood), and cruise ships first. I bet India, China, plus others will still use what ever until supply can match demand better. A sudden spike in shipping costs would have a bad ripple effect in China's economy and they have a lot of mouths to feed.

I THINK it is going to be hard to enforce. I am guessing ships will take a while to clear tanks up and depending on where they fill overseas they will be recontaminated.

I bet its one of those laws that will, in essence, will create a shipping tariff for non-compliance????
 

red

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For the US market , yes that helps offset the price jump some. But in other countries it already proved to really hurt food prices. Farming here on giant tracts with modern equipment vs still using an animal dragging plow.

Friends of mine that visit African continent for religious stuff have showed me before and after farm pics. Not talking the places like open desert Africa like many imagjne btw. Kinda average rural environment.

The people in those areas can suffer bad. The food prices doubled when companies bought the family farms and stared doing corn for ethonal fuel to sell to companies in neighboring towns. The companies pay for the water allotments, and the farmers that remain struggle for the water they need to use all their land. And they corn they grow is something different than regular corn we eat. They said you can eat it and it stops hungry feeling, but your body wont process most of it and you end up most turning to yellowish poop with bits of brown in it- reverse of the poop with couple pieces of corn in it joked about here.

They explained the situation of working people class there and it reminds me of learning how people in th Appalachian mountains lived first half of 1900s. Neighboring area is developed to average levels, but folks in the hills struggling to get by. Results in some form of moderate criminal activity to advance the family because conventional work simply isnt there. When 80% of the town goes hungry 1 day per week, no way to make business or sell services because customers have nothing to trade.
Yep, that is the problem with category 1 sources (corn being the main one). Very low yield and takes up alot of land and resources. Using category 3 sources (algae) can be done with very little land, and able to use wastewater as fertilizer. High yield, low-none farming land used, and no fertilizer taken from the farming supply. Has the benefit of cleaning up waste water as well. Can post up the info later if you want.
 

Will L.

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Others may be interested, I am too familiar with it. The same guy that is half owner of the plastics to fuel did algea before the plastics all back in the early 70’s. He is still helping MIT with the algea one a couple years ago last I heard. It is promising but still ties up more acre feet of water than makes it viable, and the growth rate is too slow for profitability. There is also a problem with much greater fuel bugs, being as it is obviously perfectnfor the fuel algae to survive since it is, well, algae fuel. Looks great in a lab, but hell, I look good in a lab- haha.
 
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